Brexit is back.
It may have been Otto von Bismarck who first said that “laws are like sausages; it’s better not see them being made.” No doubt economic forecasts fall in this category too. But it’s when a prediction is about laws and the economy that things can get rather messy. Take Brexit, with several possible outcomes – all hard to define and with shifting probabilities. The way a forecaster approaches situations like this is more important for investors to form a balanced opinion than just formulating an all-in, black or white base case. With our work on this crucial topic ongoing and to be released soon, here’s a sneak preview on what we’re up to.