Today we will get a slew of PMI data, be it for the US or for Europe. The big question is whether these figures will show more deterioration or not. Interestingly, when looking at the Citi global economic surprise index, the trend has already turned more positive. And for some Asian countries recent trade data were less negative. The main thing on economists’ minds has been whether the trade-induced slowdown, which impacted manufacturing and global capex, was going to trigger a downturn in services and consumption. So far, there has been little proof that it has, especially not in the US. While there is no guarantee that this could still happen, the talk about an imminent recession on the back of yield curve inversion has not been supported bytangible evidence.